Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3ff…805c sports 569 markets active 2d ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197,191 (-37%) realized −$197,736 · open +$545
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%152W / 377L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$942per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$711est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$40,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19,232
14 days+$17,153
30 days+$20,815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$17,074
politics 39% −$206,611
other 9% −$2,228
crypto 4% −$6,705
world 0% −$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +56.9% +42.0% 42% 42% +95.1%
≤30d 20 +22.0% +10.4% 35% 35% +57.9%
≤90d 74 +31.7% +19.1% 30% 28% +36.3%
all 529 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 28% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 28% -46.0%
10% -19.4% 26% -51.2%
15% -27.2% 25% -55.9%
20% -34.4% 25% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,190 vs −$1,009 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$40,255
Realized−$197,736
Unrealized+$545
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses152 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$711
Open positions40
Markets (closed)529 / 569
History coverage620d
Avg bet$942
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6,188 $9,285 +$3,097 (+50%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $1,000 $1,575 +$575 (+57%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1,000 $1,173 +$173 (+17%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,100 $1,128 +$28 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1,000 $1,107 +$107 (+11%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1,000 $1,055 +$55 (+6%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1,000 $1,054 +$54 (+5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,000 $1,017 +$18 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $1,000 $1,012 +$12 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1,000 $978 −$22 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,000 $977 −$23 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,000 $972 −$28 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,000 $971 −$29 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $969 −$31 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1,000 $966 −$34 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,000 $958 −$42 (-4%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,000 $948 −$52 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,000 $944 −$56 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $940 −$60 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,000 $921 −$79 (-8%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,000 $912 −$88 (-9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,000 $912 −$88 (-9%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,300 $900 −$400 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,575 +252%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,682 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,025 +$4,531 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,538 +$14,832 +268%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,020 +$1,921 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,699 +$6,262 +169%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $612 −$600 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $409 −$400 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $407 −$400 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $195 +$1,082 +555%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $424 −$345 -81%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $359 −$350 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $307 −$300 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $103 −$100 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $204 +$408 +200%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $102 +$155 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 02 $102 +$50 +48%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $102 +$201 +197%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $433 −$402 -93%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $200 −$33 -16%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $102 +$201 +197%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $170 −$130 -77%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $100 +$442 +442%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $176 −$172 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 27 $100 −$97 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $300 −$293 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $330 +$272 +83%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $500 −$488 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 39h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 40h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,022 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,022 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,025 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,255.09 · official $40,256.14 (match) · 1434 history records