Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe3fe…e93a other 6 markets active 20h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-33%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$303
sports 5% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -40.9%
≤30d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -40.9%
≤90d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -40.9%
all 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 33% -40.9%
10% -10.5% 33% -46.5%
15% -19.1% 33% -51.7%
20% -27.1% 17% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$91 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $346 −$340 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $106 −$11 -10%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$75 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 26 $41 −$6 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $94 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $71 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 25h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records