Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3fd…142e world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$22
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$29
other 27% +$1
sports 18% −$6
politics 15% +$5
crypto 3% +$4
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 10% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 27 -0.0% -9.5% 26% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 66 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 2% -9.8%
all 98 -0.6% -10.0% 31% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 68
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage290d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $324 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $166 −$1 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $13 +$3 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $126 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $124 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $192 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $123 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $337 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $122 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $141 −$21 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $244 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $151 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $140 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $295 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $136 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $69 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $138 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $150 −$13 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $74 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $163 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $162 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $162 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $217 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $112 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $112 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $147 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $482 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $146 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $174 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $161 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $29 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $311 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $86 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $13 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $99 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $135 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $135 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $95 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $126 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records