Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3fd…8fd8 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$886 (+13%) realized +$980 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days+$474
14 days+$820
30 days+$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$740
crypto 8% −$13
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.4% -1.0% 71% 67% +0.6%
≤30d 31 +5.8% -4.2% 71% 68% +4.0%
≤90d 31 +5.8% -4.2% 71% 68% +4.0%
all 31 +5.8% -4.2% 71% 68% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 68% +4.0%
10% -13.4% 52% -5.9%
15% -21.8% 52% -15.0%
20% -29.4% 29% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$104 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,326
Realized+$980
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 47¢ $342 $314 −$28 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $148 $159 +$11 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 40¢ $196 $120 −$76 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $98 $103 +$4 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $97 $92 −$5 (-5%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $135 +$63 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $200 +$111 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $205 +$99 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 +$107 +107%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $367 −$162 -44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $300 +$53 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$109 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $313 +$154 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $157 +$95 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $250 −$160 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$106 +53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 −$294 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $150 −$106 -71%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $350 +$179 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$11 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$22 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$121 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 +$83 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $150 +$55 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$107 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$29 -93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $187 +$30 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$77 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$93 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $200 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $150 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $205 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $55 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $150 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $67 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $90 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $157 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $150 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,326.06 · official $1,331.12 (match) · 82 history records