Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3fd…8f32 crypto 84 markets active 6d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,312 (-1%) realized −$1,312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate85%71W / 13L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,073per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$378
14 days−$378
30 days−$1,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,601
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.7% -18.3% 89% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 81 -0.7% -10.2% 86% 5% -11.1%
≤90d 84 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 6% -11.1%
all 84 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 6% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 5% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 2% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$250 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses71 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,073
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $433 −$433 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $434 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $425 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $433 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $1,466 −$954 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $1,204 +$54 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $2,319 −$40 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $306 +$74 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $307 +$146 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $1,168 −$218 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $2,020 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $2,031 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 28 $2,035 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $2,037 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $2,037 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $249 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $2,038 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $2,037 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $1,447 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $2,020 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $2,036 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $2,039 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $1,992 +$45 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $2,020 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $1,906 +$71 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $1,988 −$42 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1,998 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $1,663 +$31 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 24 $1,675 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 24 $1,560 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 24 $1,597 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $636 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $1,593 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $828 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $1,518 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $1,528 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $1,528 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $1,430 +$42 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $540 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $1,440 +$32 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $3,124 −$648 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $2,047 +$31 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $1,088 +$295 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $433 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $438 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $434 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $438 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $425 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $438 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $203 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $442 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $438 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $433 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $200 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 434 history records