Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3fc…9000 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%41W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$6
crypto 10% +$3
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses41 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage522d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +5%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $5,535 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $31 +$1 +3%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 09 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 29d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 61d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 61d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $4 148d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 148d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $53 149d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 180d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 210d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $42 242d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $46 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $48 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 364d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? BUY No 100¢ $11 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.96 · official $71.96 (match) · 112 history records