Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe3fb…dabf crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 420d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist
Total PnL +$117 (+9%) realized +$181 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate69%38W / 17L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$59
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$140
other 31% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +27.2% +15.1% 72% 64% +1.7%
≤30d 53 +48.9% +34.7% 70% 66% +5.5%
≤90d 53 +48.9% +34.7% 70% 66% +5.5%
all 55 +47.4% +33.3% 69% 65% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.3% 65% +5.5%
10% +20.6% 64% -4.6%
15% +8.9% 51% -13.8%
20% -1.8% 42% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses38 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage420d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $207 $140 −$67 (-32%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +228%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +189%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$32 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$22 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$36 +676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$78 +490%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.69 · official $173.69 (match) · 163 history records