Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3fb…7f96 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-27%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$51
other 46% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.5% +8.1% 33% 33% -54.8%
≤30d 9 +19.5% +8.1% 33% 33% -54.8%
≤90d 9 +19.5% +8.1% 33% 33% -54.8%
all 9 +19.5% +8.1% 33% 33% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 33% -54.8%
10% -2.2% 33% -59.1%
15% -11.7% 33% -63.1%
20% -20.3% 33% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -94%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$17 +64%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$17 -94%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 +$16 +487%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +225%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 23h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $43 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 23h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records