Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3fb…614e crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5 (+4%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.3% -7.5% 41% 37% -16.0%
≤30d 46 +2.3% -7.5% 41% 37% -16.0%
≤90d 46 +2.3% -7.5% 41% 37% -16.0%
all 46 +2.3% -7.5% 41% 37% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 37% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 28% -24.1%
15% -24.4% 26% -31.4%
20% -31.8% 24% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 91 history records