Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3fa…b506 politics 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$31
14 days+$21
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$38
other 25% −$21
crypto 12% −$12
sports 12% −$12
economics 5% −$6
culture 5% −$4
world 4% −$5
finance 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 4% -8.8%
≤30d 64 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 107 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 1% -9.6%
all 124 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 106
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage100d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $444 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $374 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$3 -6%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $838 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $359 −$2 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $175 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $54 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $283 +$51 +18%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $439 −$6 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $100 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $78 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $199 −$2 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $149 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $57 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $105 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $496 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $40 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $54 33m
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $48 5h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 11h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $59 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $59 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $45 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $54 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $54 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.23 · official $53.23 (match) · 502 history records