Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3f9…b54e sports 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$150 (+4%) realized +$150 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%164W / 139L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$26
14 days+$51
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$101
other 20% +$2
politics 10% +$11
crypto 4% +$4
world 3% −$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.0% -12.2% 58% 42% -17.1%
≤30d 175 +10.9% +0.3% 58% 51% -1.5%
≤90d 298 +5.9% -4.2% 54% 46% -6.5%
all 303 +5.9% -4.2% 54% 46% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 46% -6.5%
10% -13.3% 39% -15.5%
15% -21.7% 31% -23.6%
20% -29.4% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses164 / 139
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)303 / 308
History coverage96d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $11 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$13 -87%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $3 +$5 +158%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 +$7 +74%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $25 +$5 +21%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $14 +$8 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $26 −$24 -91%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$6 +64%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $10 −$6 -60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$8 +165%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$3 -68%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $6 +$7 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 +$5 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $15 +$4 +29%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 49¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 14h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 33h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 58¢ $6 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 33h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $0 3d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 3d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 3d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $6 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.15 · official $10.31 (match) · 1296 history records