Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:17:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe3f6…4a09 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-14%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 45% −$81
other 27% +$4
finance 23% $0
crypto 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 5 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 20% -23.8%
≤90d 5 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 20% -23.8%
all 5 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 20% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 20% -23.8%
10% -24.7% 20% -31.1%
15% -32.0% 0% -37.8%
20% -38.6% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$44 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage62d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 30 $112 −$89 -79%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? May 28 $109 +$4 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 20? May 25 $21 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.86 · official $19.86 (match) · 13 history records