Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3f6…088e politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 59L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$12
other 29% −$4
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 61 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage656d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Jan 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will 'Short n' Sweet' win Album of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win the NFC North? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea lead the EPL in points at midway point? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden sentenced to house arrest in gun case? Nov 18 $0 $0 -5%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 13 $0 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 06 $2,165 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 06 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 30d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 64d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 64d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 64d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 91d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 91d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 95d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 95d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 99¢ $57 96d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $57 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $57 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 101d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 105d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 105d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 111d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 111d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 112d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $57 132d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy BUY No 100¢ $55 243d
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 92¢ $0 543d
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 93¢ $0 543d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? SELL No 98¢ $1 543d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records