Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E3 0xe3f4…e3e3 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$109 (+9%) realized +$100 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate84%16W / 3L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day35.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-6.1%	-15.1%	84%	26%	+0.1%
≤30d	19	-6.1%	-15.1%	84%	26%	+0.1%
≤90d	19	-6.1%	-15.1%	84%	26%	+0.1%
all	19	-6.1%	-15.1%	84%	26%	+0.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-15.1%	26%	+0.1%
10% ← realistic here	-23.2%	0%	-9.5%
15%	-30.6%	0%	-18.2%
20%	-37.4%	0%	-26.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late +11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.27 per $1 lost it wins $9.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$244

Realized+$100

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)84%

Wins / losses16 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day35.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	86¢	94¢	$86	$94	+$9 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 26	$86	+$14	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 26	$87	+$12	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$4	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$5	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 26	$86	+$15	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 26	$3	−$3	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 26	$211	−$4	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$46	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$41	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$40	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$45	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$45	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$45	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$41	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$30	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$75	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$0	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$7	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$63	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.50 · official $218.00 · 49 history records