Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3f4…8a95 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+6%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate100%25W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 4% -3.8%
≤30d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 4% -3.8%
≤90d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 4% -3.8%
all 25 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 4% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 4% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -13.1%
15% -21.4% 0% -21.5%
20% -29.1% 0% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses25 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $56 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $64 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $59 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records