Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3f2…afab politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$1
other 29% −$2
economics 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 6% $0
sports 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.5%
all 17 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $107 16h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $107 6d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $107 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $107 31d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $106 32d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $106 35d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 36d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 44d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 45d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $108 59d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $108 59d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 65d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 65d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 70d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 71d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 75d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 75d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $108 83d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 83d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $108 91d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $108 92d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 94d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records