Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3f0…6c6b politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
sports 37% −$2
other 10% +$1
economics 7% +$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 25% -9.2%
≤30d 8 -12.1% -20.4% 38% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -12.1% -20.4% 38% 12% -9.4%
all 41 -3.9% -13.1% 12% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage224d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $201 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $100 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $102 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $105 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $98 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 18d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 103d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 111d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 118d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 128d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 138d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 139d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 141d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 144d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $101 145d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $101 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.34 · official $100.34 (match) · 165 history records