Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe3ed…deeb
crypto · 189 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$66 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses97 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage132d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$6 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 13 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 13 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 13 $14 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 13 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 13 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$86
other 49% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 45% -23.9%
≤30d 20 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 45% -23.9%
≤90d 95 -22.9% -30.2% 45% 43% -28.9%
all 188 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 48% -14.1%
10% -24.7% 40% -22.3%
15% -31.9% 31% -29.8%
20% -38.6% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.05 · official $4.83 (match) · 608 history records