Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe3eb…9fd8 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$14
politics 31% +$5
other 15% +$7
sports 11% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 6 +21.3% +9.8% 33% 17% -4.7%
≤90d 6 +21.3% +9.8% 33% 17% -4.7%
all 34 +6.8% -3.3% 50% 9% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 9% -5.8%
10% -12.6% 9% -14.8%
15% -21.0% 9% -23.0%
20% -28.8% 6% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage302d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $69 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $29 −$3 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $64 +$6 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $11 +$15 +135%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $13 +$8 +64%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Nov 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $5 +$3 +48%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $67 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 2h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $50 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $19 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $64 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $36 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $6 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $42 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $8 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 25d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 158d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 168d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 168d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 168d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 182d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $13 202d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $32 204d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $26 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records