Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3ea…3f04 crypto 707 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,129 (-6%) realized −$2,127 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%312W / 393L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$850
7 days−$781
14 days−$1,173
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$3,840
other 8% +$7
sports 2% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -23.0% -30.3% 45% 40% -18.1%
≤30d 310 -12.3% -20.7% 38% 35% -19.5%
≤90d 688 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 38% -13.7%
all 705 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 38% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 38% -19.9%
10% -25.5% 33% -27.5%
15% -32.7% 30% -34.5%
20% -39.3% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$2,127
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses312 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 707
History coverage171d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $201 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $149 −$145 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $93 +$47 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $221 −$214 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $147 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $139 +$131 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $99 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $135 +$53 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $167 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$27 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$33 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $59 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $92 −$69 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$30 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $204 −$196 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $200 −$150 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $79 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$57 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $109 +$87 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $209 +$137 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $155 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $181 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $99 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $28 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $58 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $60 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $59 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $98 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $70 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $18 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.79 · official $19.79 (match) · 1477 history records