Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3e9…4d23 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$130 (-9%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$158
sports 14% −$60
tech 7% +$65
world 2% −$6
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -98.8% -98.9% 0% 0% -98.9%
≤30d 1 -98.8% -98.9% 0% 0% -98.9%
≤90d 3 -57.4% -61.5% 33% 33% -74.0%
all 27 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 37% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 37% -19.6%
10% -24.2% 37% -27.2%
15% -31.5% 33% -34.3%
20% -38.2% 33% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$62 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage259d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Apr 07 $50 +$13 +27%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 10 $50 +$2 +4%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 27 $50 +$64 +127%
Pacers vs. Hawks Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $51 −$51 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 29 $10 +$13 +133%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $23 +$21 +92%
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $100 +$488 +488%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 29 $3 +$2 +75%
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Rangers Oct 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM e Oct 20 $50 +$89 +177%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Colts vs. Chargers Oct 19 $19 +$13 +66%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Oct 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10AM ET Oct 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $100 1h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $79 80d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 BUY Yes 20¢ $50 136d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 35¢ $52 136d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 34¢ $50 137d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 137d
Pacers vs. Hawks BUY Pacers 57¢ $50 151d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 44¢ $50 151d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp Blue 46¢ $51 151d
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 219d
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 220d
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 220d
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 220d
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $150 220d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 221d
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 221d
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 222d
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 247d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 248d
Wild vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 59¢ $35 249d
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 249d
Colts vs. Chargers SELL Colts 100¢ $32 249d
Colts vs. Chargers BUY Colts 60¢ $19 250d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM e BUY Yes 36¢ $50 250d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? BUY Yes 13¢ $75 250d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 255d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? BUY No 36¢ $15 255d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 259d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 259d
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? BUY No 52¢ $10 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 39 history records