Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3e4…8d04 other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,112 (+11%) realized +$8,510 · open −$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%89W / 135L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,693
7 days−$769
14 days−$1,758
30 days+$6,677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$5,081
other 35% +$1,097
politics 15% −$1,061
finance 5% +$528
crypto 4% −$835
tech 3% +$2,206
economics 2% −$561
sports 0% +$21
weather 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 42% -14.4%
≤30d 88 +40.5% +27.1% 50% 41% -3.0%
≤90d 179 +16.9% +5.7% 42% 35% -9.9%
all 224 +20.2% +8.8% 40% 33% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 33% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 26% -15.3%
15% -11.2% 23% -23.5%
20% -19.9% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$148 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$10,955
Realized+$8,510
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses89 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions37
Markets (closed)224 / 263
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$289
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $1,980 $1,785 −$195 (-10%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,514 $1,527 +$13 (+1%)
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $923 $915 −$9 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $750 $765 +$16 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $803 $605 −$198 (-25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $559 $591 +$32 (+6%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $520 $575 +$55 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 53¢ 53¢ $529 $530 +$0 (+0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 69¢ $470 $417 −$53 (-11%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 27¢ 40¢ $270 $395 +$125 (+46%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 63¢ 92¢ $264 $380 +$116 (+44%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $320 $295 −$25 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $333 $258 −$75 (-23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $242 $244 +$2 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $254 $240 −$14 (-6%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $190 $238 +$48 (+25%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $242 $192 −$49 (-20%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $230 $188 −$42 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $215 $182 −$32 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $161 $158 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 50¢ $36 $99 +$63 (+175%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $65 $43 −$23 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1,348 −$37 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $815 +$1,003 +123%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$51 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,912 −$2,253 -77%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $288 +$92 +32%
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presi Jun 16 $22 +$7 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $490 +$53 +11%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 16 $580 −$500 -86%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $853 −$789 -92%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$44 +43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$79 -77%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $347 −$107 -31%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $253 +$186 +74%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$28 -42%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $535 +$181 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $677 +$303 +45%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 +$24 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $345 +$35 +10%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $163 −$18 -11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 14 $210 +$660 +314%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $390 +$20 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $356 +$234 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $180 −$130 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $103 −$68 -66%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $61 +$2 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,566 +$181 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $610 +$230 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $248 +$12 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $220 −$50 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 10 $135 −$104 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 53¢ $523 9m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $4 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $698 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes 3¢ $17 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $69 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $88 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $19 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $19 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $60 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $47 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 2h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $87 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $103 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,954.52 · official $10,954.69 (match) · 3500 history records