Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3e4…26e9 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$569 (-9%) realized −$569 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$351
14 days+$383
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$572
other 47% +$383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 40% +12.0%
≤30d 9 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 44% +8.6%
≤90d 9 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 44% +8.6%
all 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 50% -10.6%
10% -22.4% 50% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 42% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$424 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage192d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $607 +$393 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $484 +$952 +197%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $658 −$642 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $216 −$173 -80%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $504 +$192 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 +$60 +128%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $998 +$426 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Dec 13 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $998 +$333 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $607 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,436 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $484 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $299 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $359 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $216 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $184 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $688 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $140 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $106 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records