trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 24¢ | 22¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 44¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 94¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -89% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -75% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +158% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -35.3% | -41.5% | 17% | 17% | +19.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -35.3% | -41.5% | 17% | 17% | +19.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -35.3% | -41.5% | 17% | 17% | +19.3% |
| all | 6 | -35.3% | -41.5% | 17% | 17% | +19.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.5% | 17% | +19.3% |
| 10% | -47.1% | 17% | +7.9% |
| 15% | -52.2% | 17% | -2.6% |
| 20% | -56.9% | 17% | -12.1% |