Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3e1…84c2 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%37W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$9
politics 15% $0
other 13% −$8
sports 11% +$7
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.3% -6.5% 60% 20% -8.0%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 68 +2.3% -7.4% 49% 4% -9.2%
all 77 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses37 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage530d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $90 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $79 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $6 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $49 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $17 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $77 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $123 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $39 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $51 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.15 · official $30.55 (match) · 365 history records