Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe3e0…708f sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$622 (-28%) realized −$608 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$518
other 11% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-81.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -79.5% -81.4% 14% 14% -71.6%
≤30d 7 -79.5% -81.4% 14% 14% -71.6%
≤90d 7 -79.5% -81.4% 14% 14% -71.6%
all 7 -79.5% -81.4% 14% 14% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.4% 14% -71.6%
10% -83.2% 14% -74.3%
15% -84.8% 14% -76.8%
20% -86.3% 0% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$116 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions11
Markets (closed)7 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 73¢ $242 $244 +$2 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 66¢ $191 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $173 $172 −$1 (-1%)
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 40¢ $127 $126 −$2 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners Under 45¢ 44¢ $116 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 64¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 46¢ $75 $64 −$12 (-15%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Under 53¢ 52¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 60¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 32¢ 33¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $195 +$85 +44%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $133 −$130 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $119 −$116 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $76 −$75 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $117 −$115 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $156 −$154 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $78 4m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $166 5m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 53¢ $56 6m
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $129 14m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $118 56m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $13 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $39 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $39 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $133 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $195 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $170 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 23h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 65¢ $50 23h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $91 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $116 23h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $153 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $119 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $76 39h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $91 44h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $14 44h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $117 44h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $31 44h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $63 44h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $20 44h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $42 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.98 · official $1,245.98 (match) · 31 history records