Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E3 0xe3de…78dd world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$464 (+26%) realized +$477 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%47W / 29L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$65
14 days+$309
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$401
other 9% −$17
finance 1% +$5
politics 1% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.4% +36.1% 75% 75% +71.6%
≤30d 39 +44.5% +30.8% 64% 62% +27.9%
≤90d 76 +20.2% +8.8% 62% 57% +15.1%
all 76 +20.2% +8.8% 62% 57% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 57% +15.1%
10% -1.6% 41% +4.1%
15% -11.2% 36% -6.0%
20% -19.9% 24% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$477
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses47 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage90d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 28 $40 +$58 +144%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +69%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $66 +$11 +17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $95 +$123 +130%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $30 −$18 -60%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 +$54 +179%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +48%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $50 +$28 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $103 +$46 +44%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $40 +$70 +175%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -47%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $19 +$8 +43%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $43 +$9 +21%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 −$8 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$36 +146%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $10 +$6 +64%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 23 $21 −$8 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? May 05 $1 +$1 +145%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 01 $32 +$6 +17%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 29 $21 −$10 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $6 +$6 +100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $15 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $78 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 4d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 7d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $39 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 7d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $50 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 8d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 8d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 8d
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $25 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $15 8d
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.17 · official $152.17 (match) · 237 history records