Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3dc…eaa8 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$518 (+0%) realized −$10,863 · open +$11,381
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 47L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,580per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3,038est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$21,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$6,743
other 5% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +7.4% -2.9% 49% 49% -3.7%
≤30d 45 +7.4% -2.9% 49% 49% -3.7%
≤90d 67 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 45% -10.0%
all 84 -5.1% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 44% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -20.0%
15% -29.9% 42% -27.8%
20% -36.8% 42% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$3,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,721 vs −$2,244 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$21,759
Realized−$10,863
Unrealized+$11,381
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,038
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage125d
Avg bet$2,580
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Teodora Kostovic 30¢ 100¢ $3,000 $10,087 +$7,087 (+236%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Marina Bassols Ribera 21¢ 58¢ $3,478 $9,540 +$6,062 (+174%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Zhuoxuan Bai 54¢ 30¢ $3,900 $2,132 −$1,768 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $3,064 −$3,000 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $4,058 +$3,627 +89%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino Jun 24 $3,859 −$3,800 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $3,059 +$5,762 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $3,072 −$3,000 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $4,081 +$8,348 +204%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens Jun 24 $3,033 +$1,724 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $3,265 −$3,200 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $3,046 +$3,099 +102%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 24 $2,081 +$3,121 +150%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $2,882 +$3,277 +114%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $1,751 −$1,729 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $5,068 −$5,000 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $2,310 +$4,505 +195%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $2,746 −$2,694 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $5,572 −$936 -17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3,640 −$3,597 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $4,079 +$4,639 +114%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $804 −$786 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $1,993 +$2,093 +105%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $2,393 −$2,350 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $4,009 −$3,938 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $3,057 +$5,237 +171%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $3,102 −$3,102 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $798 −$7 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $3,001 +$3,155 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $1,985 −$1,974 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $2,558 −$2,500 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $3,041 +$2,508 +82%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $3,062 −$3,062 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,343 +$3,178 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,026 +$1,519 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $3,045 +$2,996 +98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $2,036 +$2,931 +144%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2,963 +$4,027 +136%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,726 +$1,420 +52%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $4,373 +$1,262 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,987 +$2,307 +77%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,729 −$1,708 -99%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $869 −$852 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,966 −$2,926 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $1,210 −$1,186 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 07 $1,937 −$1,903 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $4,135 −$4,079 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $2,023 +$1,200 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 28¢ $3,064 55m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 22¢ $3,071 57m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 20¢ $489 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $7,684 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 30¢ $3,063 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 54¢ $3,954 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Nao Hibino 48¢ $3,859 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 100¢ $8,822 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 34¢ $3,059 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 19¢ $3,072 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $12,429 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 52¢ $4,058 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley SELL Fiona Crawley 100¢ $20 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Elena Pridankina 100¢ $4,757 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 49¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 32¢ $3,265 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Elena Pridankina 63¢ $3,033 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue SELL Katherine Sebov 100¢ $6,145 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 49¢ $3,046 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $5,201 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 39¢ $2,081 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 32¢ $4,081 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin SELL Oceane Dodin 100¢ $6,160 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 46¢ $2,882 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 57¢ $1,751 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 55¢ $5,068 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $6,814 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 33¢ $2,310 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 35¢ $2,746 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $2,753 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,758.72 · official $21,758.72 (match) · 153 history records