Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe3d7…2718 world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$10
sports 41% +$36
world 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 0% -7.4%
all 6 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 0% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -7.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -16.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -24.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage20d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -4%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $433 +$36 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $440 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 24m
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $65 24m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 3h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 14d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 14d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 14d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 16d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 16d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 16d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 16d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY China PR 92¢ $433 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $430 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $440 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records