Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3d7…46bf crypto 379 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$156 (-1%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate90%340W / 39L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$39
14 days+$2
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$270
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +3.0% -6.8% 98% 8% -7.0%
≤30d 131 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 13% -9.9%
≤90d 257 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 15% -10.3%
all 379 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 16% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 16% -10.2%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$40 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses340 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)379 / 379
History coverage118d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? No 81¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$7 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $55 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $45 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 925 history records