Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3d7…2ffb other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL −$256 (-5%) realized −$210 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$136
14 days−$917
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$386
crypto 29% −$303
sports 11% −$280
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.0% +5.8% 40% 40% +10.8%
≤30d 51 -25.0% -32.1% 22% 20% -18.9%
≤90d 72 +23.1% +11.4% 29% 28% -12.2%
all 72 +23.1% +11.4% 29% 28% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 28% -12.2%
10% +0.7% 25% -20.6%
15% -9.0% 24% -28.3%
20% -17.9% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$59 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage82d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $196 +$306 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $74 +$168 +227%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $93 −$80 -86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $125 +$460 +369%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $84 −$67 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $37 +$63 +170%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$94 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $125 +$71 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $89 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $105 +$22 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$9 -42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $58 +$281 +487%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $131 +$682 +522%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $73 +$287 +394%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $31 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $251 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 301 history records