Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E3 0xe3d3…3265 other 9 markets active 1d ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$26 (-49%) realized −$26 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip

Net edge-81%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-81.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-71.3%	-74.0%	20%	20%	-71.0%
≤30d	5	-71.3%	-74.0%	20%	20%	-71.0%
≤90d	7	-79.5%	-81.4%	14%	14%	-81.0%
all	7	-79.5%	-81.4%	14%	14%	-81.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-81.4%	14%	-81.0%
10%	-83.2%	14%	-82.8%
15%	-84.8%	14%	-84.5%
20%	-86.3%	0%	-86.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -79% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -79% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$26

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage42d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	+$2	+44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 11	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 11	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?	May 10	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 10	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	7¢	$11	24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1	BUY	23¢	$8	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$4	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	33¢	$2	6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$6	18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	33¢	$6	18d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?	BUY Yes	53¢	$7	41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	42d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records