Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3d3…f242 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,038 (-17%) realized −$1,780 · open +$742
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$101
14 days−$142
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 50% -41.4%
≤90d 12 -24.1% -31.3% 50% 42% -38.2%
all 30 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 47% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 47% -26.0%
10% -31.7% 47% -33.1%
15% -38.3% 33% -39.5%
20% -44.3% 23% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$179 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$1,091
Realized−$1,780
Unrealized+$742
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage188d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 24¢ 75¢ $349 $1,091 +$742 (+212%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $301 −$294 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $147 +$253 +172%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 11 $115 +$35 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $680 −$675 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 28 $462 +$150 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 15 $460 +$40 +9%
Magic vs. Pistons May 07 $471 +$129 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $104 −$103 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $226 −$225 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 23 $142 +$56 +40%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 12 $407 −$404 -99%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $159 −$159 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 27 $118 +$82 +70%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 17 $530 +$250 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 14 $291 +$419 +144%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 11 $88 +$62 +70%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Mar 03 $89 +$53 +59%
Magic vs. Clippers Feb 23 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 18 $62 +$18 +28%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Feb 15 $37 +$17 +45%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Feb 15 $33 +$27 +82%
Rockets vs. Pistons Feb 15 $30 +$45 +150%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $63 −$63 -100%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 24¢ $357 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $128 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $173 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $147 14d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 76¢ $115 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Hubert Hurkacz 75¢ $680 28d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P BUY Movistar KOI 75¢ $462 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $40 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $3 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $51 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $50 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $51 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 92¢ $14 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,091.25 · official $1,091.25 (match) · 81 history records