Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe3d1…d312 world 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,900 (+4%) realized +$7,004 · open −$3,104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 64L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$824
7 days−$530
14 days+$2,769
30 days+$3,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$2,566
other 10% −$383
crypto 2% +$135
sports 2% +$5
finance 2% +$893
politics 1% −$126
economics 0% +$17
tech 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.8% +24.7% 25% 25% -21.7%
≤30d 35 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 43% -2.8%
≤90d 92 -26.6% -33.6% 39% 27% -2.8%
all 122 -19.4% -27.0% 48% 30% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 30% -2.3%
10% -34.0% 20% -11.6%
15% -40.4% 13% -20.2%
20% -46.2% 10% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$77 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$4,914
Realized+$7,004
Unrealized−$3,104
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)122 / 126
History coverage233d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $3,696 $2,134 −$1,562 (-42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $2,171 $2,113 −$58 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $2,115 $652 −$1,463 (-69%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 27 $808 −$787 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Jun 27 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 27 $1,760 −$35 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 24 $117 +$293 +251%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $22 −$18 -83%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $4 +$6 +129%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $275 +$346 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,125 −$890 -79%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3,525 +$2,884 +82%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2,001 +$605 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $445 +$367 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,143 −$1,143 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $257 +$45 +18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -49%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$17 -44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,746 +$224 +13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $67 −$66 -99%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $21,687 +$559 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$11 -95%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $901 +$112 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +105%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $10 +$23 +217%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$4 -25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,590 +$222 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 02 $12 −$6 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $1,085 +$14 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,159 +$462 +21%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $30 −$30 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 27 $101 −$95 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $1,376 +$542 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $4,331 +$235 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $18 −$13 -72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 18 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $522 +$92 +18%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? May 15 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $1,275 +$177 +14%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $267 +$1 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $811 +$27 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $3,344 +$175 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 29 $219 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $125 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $35 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $221 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,000 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? SELL No 83¢ $1,248 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 83¢ $1,250 12h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1,251 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,955 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 76¢ $229 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $180 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $58 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $123 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 20¢ $10 9d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $39 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $174 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $174 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $235 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $235 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $733 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $620 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,913.71 · official $4,913.71 (match) · 953 history records