Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

E3 0xe3cb…ac21 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$29,683 (+14%) realized +$27,988 · open +$1,695

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$8,951per market

Trades / day139.8pace

Fees−$888est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$91,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+43.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+58.2%	+43.1%	67%	67%	+41.1%
≤30d	18	+58.2%	+43.1%	67%	67%	+41.1%
≤90d	18	+58.2%	+43.1%	67%	67%	+41.1%
all	18	+58.2%	+43.1%	67%	67%	+41.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover139.8 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+43.1%	67%	+41.1%
10%	+29.4%	61%	+27.6%
15% ← realistic here	+16.9%	56%	+15.3%
20%	+5.5%	44%	+4.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,284) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +67% → late +50% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$5,940 vs −$1,080 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.0 per $1 lost it wins $11.0

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$91,297

Realized+$27,988

Unrealized+$1,695

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$888

Open positions5

Markets (closed)18 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8,951

Trades / day139.8

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	85¢	86¢	$80,089	$81,045	+$956 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	47¢	52¢	$4,700	$5,250	+$550 (+12%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	No	40¢	40¢	$3,052	$3,014	−$38 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	37¢	40¢	$1,453	$1,551	+$98 (+7%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	70¢	100¢	$308	$437	+$130 (+42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$3,456	+$9,497	+275%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$48,928	+$20,512	+42%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$10,115	+$9,145	+90%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$1,305	−$1,283	-98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$350	−$349	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 26	$248	−$247	-99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$1,294	+$1,866	+144%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5,307	+$9,693	+183%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$3,537	+$454	+13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$3,822	+$3,402	+89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$2,351	−$2,069	-88%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	Jun 25	$257	+$1,144	+445%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$23,511	+$6,825	+29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5,284	+$3,128	+59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$2,085	−$2,085	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 25	$1,128	+$518	+46%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$2,308	+$5,092	+221%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$450	−$444	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$9	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$1,296	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	77¢	$344	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	61¢	$123	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	61¢	$125	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$2,538	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$2	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$10	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$727	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$1	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$16	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$1,434	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$34	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$2	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$173	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$398	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$626	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$58	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$1,377	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$18	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$2,700	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$27	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$721	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$15	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$2	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$8	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$3	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$6	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$8	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	61¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91,296.95 · official $91,296.95 (match) · 159 history records