Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe3ca…ba89 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+43%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +143% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +103% what you keep after slip
Net edge+103%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$52
other 24% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+119.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +99.5%
≤30d 6 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +99.5%
≤90d 6 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +99.5%
all 6 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +99.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +119.8% 100% +99.5%
10% +98.8% 100% +80.4%
15% +79.6% 100% +63.0%
20% +61.9% 83% +47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +120% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +143% · $-wt +120% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 32¢ 40¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+23%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 55¢ 55¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +40%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +344%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$17 +110%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$29 +186%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $9 +$6 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 32¢ $5 15m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $5 29m
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 30m
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $16 32m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 32m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $11 47m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 43¢ $10 1h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $45 1h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 32¢ $16 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $9 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.58 · official $21.58 (match) · 20 history records