Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3c9…90fe other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$3
politics 23% $0
other 23% −$5
crypto 11% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -11.9%
all 33 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -11.1%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage369d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $26 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $44 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 -2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 11 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4? Jul 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jul 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $23 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $15 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $27 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $26 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $1 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $27 14d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 210d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 210d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $5 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $5 210d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 27¢ $2 210d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL No 21¢ $3 210d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $2 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records