Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E3 0xe3c5…21e2 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$13,021 (-43%) realized −$12,928 · open −$93

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%11W / 13L

Whale WR33%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,211per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$34est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$3,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2,078

7 days+$1,916

14 days−$15,066

30 days−$15,066

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)+1.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+17.6%	+6.4%	42%	42%	+13.3%
≤30d	24	+12.1%	+1.4%	46%	46%	-61.6%
≤90d	24	+12.1%	+1.4%	46%	46%	-61.6%
all	24	+12.1%	+1.4%	46%	46%	-61.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.4%	46%	-61.6%
10%	-8.3%	46%	-65.3%
15%	-17.2%	46%	-68.6%
20%	-25.3%	38%	-71.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 33% (≥$540) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +42% → late -17% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$568 vs −$1,639 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$3,886

Realized−$12,928

Unrealized−$93

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses11 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)33%

Est. fees paid−$34

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage10d

Avg bet$1,211

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$3,979	$3,886	−$93 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1,928	−$1,900	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 23	$208	+$227	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 23	$208	−$200	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 23	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 23	$209	+$322	+154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 23	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 23	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 23	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 23	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 23	$106	+$453	+428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 23	$106	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 23	$106	−$100	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 23	$106	+$294	+277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 23	$105	+$181	+173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 23	$421	+$253	+60%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$686	−$678	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$333	−$330	-99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$506	+$301	+60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$2,140	+$3,693	+172%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$744	−$738	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$540	+$198	+37%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$307	+$213	+69%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$220	+$110	+50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 13	$16,765	−$16,765	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$4,022	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	51¢	$1,928	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$104	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$104	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$105	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$104	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$104	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$105	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$103	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$105	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$104	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$106	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$106	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$106	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$400	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$106	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$105	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$438	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	39¢	$236	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$105	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$105	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$106	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$105	17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	59¢	$653	20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	55¢	$33	20h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	66¢	$333	29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$506	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2,140	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,886.06 · official $3,886.06 (match) · 58 history records