Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe3c4…6a45 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%70W / 37L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$40
economics 37% $0
weather 4% +$2
crypto 2% −$149
sports 1% +$82
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$35
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 14% -12.2%
≤30d 28 +21.0% +9.5% 46% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 32 +21.3% +9.8% 53% 38% -9.9%
all 107 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 33% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 33% -9.7%
10% -15.1% 27% -18.4%
15% -23.3% 23% -26.3%
20% -30.8% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses70 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage602d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $308 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $313 −$150 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,802 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $805 −$5 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,214 −$14 -1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $15 +$24 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $20 +$24 +124%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,005 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,855 −$2 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $5,258 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $15 +$13 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,968 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,189 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $11 +$21 +188%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $18 +$16 +86%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,455 −$10 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,637 −$4 -0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$1 +20%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Apr 26 $13 +$3 +23%
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5 Apr 08 $20 +$6 +28%
Clippers vs. Lakers Mar 23 $8 +$3 +41%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 23 $25 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Knicks Feb 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on February 19? Feb 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 19 $35 $0 +0%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jan 29 $6 +$3 +49%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 28 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $120 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Oct 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Polish strike on Belarus by September 30? Oct 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Sep 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 13 $35 −$5 -14%
Giants vs. Pirates Aug 13 $6 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $308 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,200 34h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $21 35h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 35h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $31 35h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $800 35h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $2,200 35h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $2,214 36h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $805 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $538 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,802 36h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 62¢ $20 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $815 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $9 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $8 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $8 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $9 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $7 14d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2,637 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.92 · official $74.92 (match) · 440 history records