Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3bf…99d3 crypto 608 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,516 (-6%) realized −$1,468 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%188W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days−$6,755
14 days−$6,755
30 days−$6,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$559
other 8% −$397
finance 7% −$460
world 5% −$421
sports 3% +$511
politics 0% −$67
economics 0% −$21
weather 0% −$30
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -61.8% -65.4% 14% 13% -63.8%
≤30d 343 -61.8% -65.4% 14% 13% -63.8%
≤90d 471 -12.4% -20.7% 32% 30% -16.4%
all 582 -5.4% -14.4% 32% 30% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -15.4%
10% -22.6% 28% -23.5%
15% -30.1% 27% -30.9%
20% -37.0% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$28 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,468
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses188 / 394
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)582 / 608
History coverage181d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 58¢ 30¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France win on 20 Jun 16 $15 +$42 +275%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $25 +$394 +1595%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$18 -75%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$5 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 16 $16 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$51 -72%
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots Jun 15 $18 −$4 -23%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$29 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$23 -42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $64 +$109 +172%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$17 +119%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw Jun 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$2 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$12 -85%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$60 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +460%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a Jun 14 $32 +$77 +244%
Don Deedson Louicius: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $24 +$42 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$38 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$75 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $30 35m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 56m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $27 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 4¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end BUY 1¢ $9 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY 2¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 2¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $41 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France win on 20 SELL 58¢ $58 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp SELL 96¢ $418 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.56 · official $125.67 · 1695 history records