Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3bb…8b3e sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 751d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,770 (-17%) realized −$5,718 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$9,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,066
7 days+$2,066
14 days+$2,066
30 days+$2,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$6,543
other 22% +$659
world 6% +$3
economics 1% +$5
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.9% +24.7% 100% 60% +14.8%
≤30d 6 +14.9% +4.0% 83% 50% +14.7%
≤90d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 70% 50% +12.1%
all 28 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 36% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 36% -31.2%
10% -20.0% 29% -37.8%
15% -27.7% 21% -43.8%
20% -34.8% 14% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$1,155 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

751d coverage
Net worth$9,914
Realized−$5,718
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage751d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 82¢ 81¢ $9,000 $8,944 −$56 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $644 $640 −$4 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $312 $311 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 49¢ 90¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 29 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 29 $2,016 +$724 +36%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $661 +$851 +129%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,003 +$85 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,010 +$399 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $109 −$108 -99%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $4,452 −$4,452 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $2,300 +$2,210 +96%
Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $3,622 −$3,622 -100%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 28 $20 +$1 +5%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jan 28 $260 +$4 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 17 $260 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31? Oct 15 $1,048 −$3 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 15 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Adin Ross unbanned from Twitch before 2025? Sep 29 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Trump election interference trial start in September or October? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Kings Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump sentenced to no prison time? Oct 24 $18 $0 +0%
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? Sep 26 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26? Aug 25 $6 +$3 +47%
Will England win Group C? Jul 20 $13 +$3 +19%
NBA Finals Winner: Celtics vs. Mavericks Jun 24 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 2h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $327 2h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $159 2h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $163 3h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $163 3h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $80 3h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $80 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1,008 12h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1,008 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 29h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 29h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $203 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 30h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 30h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $1,007 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,913.53 · official $9,914.62 (match) · 109 history records