Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3b8…7845 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$122 (+15%) realized +$123 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$108
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$111
sports 8% $0
crypto 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.4% +5.3% 70% 70% +5.1%
≤30d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% +4.3%
≤90d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% +4.3%
all 14 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 64% +4.3%
10% -11.6% 29% -5.7%
15% -20.1% 29% -14.8%
20% -28.0% 7% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $138 +$15 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$36 +71%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 −$32 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 −$4 -9%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $145 +$63 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$9 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $13 +$5 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $80 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 97¢ $87 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 71¢ $20 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $30 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 99¢ $51 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $44 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 47h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 15¢ $46 47h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 16¢ $51 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $61 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $149 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.18 · official $89.18 (match) · 46 history records