Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3b8…80b8 sports 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$53 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%100W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$8
14 days−$2
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$111
world 31% −$13
other 26% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.7% +18.3% 69% 69% -5.3%
≤30d 50 +27.6% +15.4% 70% 70% +8.1%
≤90d 143 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 56% -14.1%
all 163 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 61% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 61% -6.7%
10% -13.2% 58% -15.6%
15% -21.6% 47% -23.8%
20% -29.3% 30% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses100 / 63
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)163 / 174
History coverage110d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $735 $742 +$7 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 88¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 85¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 76¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 69¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 41¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 30¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$25 +248%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$7 +71%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $20 +$10 +50%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $5 +$12 +226%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$5 +262%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $3 +$4 +134%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $15 +$10 +66%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$9 +45%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 +$7 +73%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $2 +$6 +307%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 12m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 13m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $20 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $5 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.90 · official $830.50 (match) · 417 history records