Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3b7…5a4c world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$1
other 10% −$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 6% -9.7%
all 38 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -9.7%
10% -17.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage471d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $97 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $38 −$2 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $72 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $22 +$4 +18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Apr 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 20 $8 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $16 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $32 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records