Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3b7…5bdc sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,532 (+6%) realized +$1,532 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,396per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,362
7 days+$1,362
14 days+$1,799
30 days+$1,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,149
sports 29% +$792
politics 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 31% -3.9%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 36% -2.7%
≤90d 17 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 41% -2.5%
all 18 -5.1% -14.2% 83% 39% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 39% -2.7%
10% -22.4% 11% -12.0%
15% -29.9% 6% -20.5%
20% -36.8% 6% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,405) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$30 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.27 per $1 lost it wins $22.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage119d
Avg bet$1,396
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,124 +$97 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $432 +$67 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,447 +$66 +2%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $3,311 +$138 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $225 +$25 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $127 +$14 +11%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $637 +$32 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $2,405 +$115 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,881 +$97 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,795 +$233 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,335 +$228 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,314 +$259 +11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,869 +$437 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $33 +$25 +76%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1,111 +$155 +14%
Will Trump say "El Salvador" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,221 32m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $978 51m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $146 55m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $223 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $824 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $694 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $1,995 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 98¢ $3,447 3h
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $3,449 4h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $3,311 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $249 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $225 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 99¢ $141 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $127 6h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $669 7h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $333 7h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $304 7h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $528 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $301 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $132 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $240 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 95¢ $152 9h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 97¢ $411 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records