Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E3 0xe3b5…ac60 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$34
crypto 22% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +148.3% +124.7% 100% 100% +137.0%
≤30d 2 +148.3% +124.7% 100% 100% +137.0%
≤90d 2 +148.3% +124.7% 100% 100% +137.0%
all 12 +16.1% +5.1% 67% 50% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 50% +21.1%
10% -5.0% 50% +9.5%
15% -14.2% 42% -1.1%
20% -22.6% 33% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +162% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage219d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $75 $33 −$42 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$9 +169%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $1 +$1 +128%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 20 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 20 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 19 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 80¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 26¢ $2 3d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 199d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 214d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 217d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 218d
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 218d
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 218d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 218d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.87 · official $32.88 (match) · 22 history records