Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3b4…9f6f crypto 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,845 (-5%) realized −$3,845 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%220W / 187L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$369
14 days−$369
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$4,456
sports 8% +$155
other 3% −$1,120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -66.1% -69.3% 22% 22% -58.6%
≤30d 44 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 250 -4.0% -13.1% 59% 54% -13.1%
all 407 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 49% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 49% -15.7%
10% -26.7% 43% -23.8%
15% -33.8% 36% -31.2%
20% -40.3% 25% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$137 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses220 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)407 / 407
History coverage360d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 407 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$82 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 20 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $102 −$52 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $128 −$94 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $103 −$71 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $204 −$201 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 20 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 20 $198 +$62 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $409 −$143 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $306 −$180 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $207 −$89 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $244 +$133 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $208 −$203 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $205 +$99 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $206 +$150 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 20 $208 +$242 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $103 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $103 +$65 +63%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 20 $238 +$92 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $181 +$64 +36%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $60 +$15 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $90 +$76 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 17 $47 −$45 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1007 history records