Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3b1…9a06 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-1%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$88
14 days−$61
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$55
other 24% −$67
sports 9% −$43
world 6% −$50
economics 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -31.1% -37.7% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 9 -13.8% -22.0% 22% 11% -20.0%
≤90d 72 -5.6% -14.6% 19% 11% -10.5%
all 106 -4.4% -13.5% 26% 21% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 21% -10.4%
10% -21.8% 21% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 21% -26.8%
20% -36.3% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage216d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $62 −$57 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $157 −$15 -10%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $61 −$11 -18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $72 −$26 -36%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $120 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 12 $456 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $235 $0 -0%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 26 $9 +$8 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 18 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $850 −$4 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $300 −$2 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $371 +$2 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $100 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $100 $0 -0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $12 +$8 +65%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Tamara Korpatsch vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $400 −$3 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $350 $0 -0%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $6 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $56 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $62 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $54 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $88 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $136 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $61 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $56 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $18 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $8 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $16 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $8 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $4 11d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 12d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 33¢ $35 12d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 33¢ $1 13d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 33¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 366 history records