Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3ac…5f97 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$657 (-11%) realized −$657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$530
7 days−$1,226
14 days−$1,149
30 days−$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,057
crypto 11% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.4% -13.5% 34% 32% -29.5%
≤30d 83 +8.1% -2.2% 49% 47% -27.5%
≤90d 83 +8.1% -2.2% 49% 47% -27.5%
all 83 +8.1% -2.2% 49% 47% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 47% -27.5%
10% -11.6% 41% -34.5%
15% -20.1% 34% -40.8%
20% -27.9% 23% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$36 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 42
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage15d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $639 −$315 -49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $214 −$76 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $761 −$73 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $324 24m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $639 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL KOLESIE 31¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 47¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records