Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3a9…c6f7 weather 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$116 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$3
weather 18% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% −$231
world 1% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -9.9% -18.5% 70% 0% -13.8%
all 32 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -11.1%
10% -19.0% 3% -19.6%
15% -26.8% 3% -27.4%
20% -34.0% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage176d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 22? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers May 18 $116 −$232 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on April 11 May 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C on April 23? May 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -3°C on April 10? May 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 8? Apr 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 5? Apr 05 $173 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on March 27? Mar 27 $139 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $776 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 23? Mar 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on March 16? Mar 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $545 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February Mar 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 01 $159 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of February? Feb 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo win the HLTV IGL of the Year award Jan 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov win the HLTV Awper of the Year award Jan 29 $12 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Garidmagnai "⁠bLitz⁠" Byambasuren win the HLTV IGL of the Year aw Jan 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on January 9? Jan 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $136 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 46h
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $124 62d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -3°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $209 75d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on April 11 BUY No 100¢ $117 76d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $98 77d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $173 79d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 82d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $612 83d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $139 89d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $776 89d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $776 89d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $65 92d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $597 95d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $598 96d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on March 16? BUY No 99¢ $48 100d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $727 103d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $545 103d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $545 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $617 105d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $617 106d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 53¢ $116 106d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 109d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $592 111d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $592 113d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 114d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 114d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February BUY No 100¢ $41 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $159 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.43 · official $230.43 (match) · 106 history records